As Gartner predicted, "More than half of major new business processes and systems will incorporate some element of the Internet of Things (IoT) by 2020, according to Gartner, Inc. The impact of the IoT on consumers' lives and corporate business models is rapidly increasing as the cost of 'instrumenting' physical things with sensors and connecting them to other things — devices, systems and people — continues to drop." What do you think?
Read the post, pulling out my virtual popcorn and root beer for the imminent Kool-Aid.
Still waiting to see a data scientist do a really good - read in italics as "actionable" - job on the analytics coming off the amount of data that's being pumped out.
75% of projects not going well and the bad guys hacking devices is a given. [shrug]
More than 50% incorporation by 2020 seems unlikely. IoT has a lot of problems that need to be solved before such a widespread deployment. In particular security is a key issue.
On the other hand there is a famous saying in tech.. something to the effect of 'We always overestimate what will happen in 5 years and underestimate what will happen in 10'. So, if the question was rephrased to 2026, I would say 'yeah, maybe'.
Also it depends on how expansive a definition one takes of IoT. If we consider Smart Phones as a 'thing', then by some estimates we are already there.
Considering that we are at the beginning of the industry 4.0 revolution then I would “predict” that there will be more and more business processes with full happy path executed by “Things” – some kind of software-defined industry or manufacturing (BPM is a key for it, of course).
Those “Things” must be clear enough to “understand” a desired business process and “execute it” together as a group of specialized “workers”. A human being will be needed to supervise them in difficult situations.
Not sure that Gartner took those processes in their calculations.
First, +1 to Ian for brevity, wit, and marksmanship.
Let's set aside the exact quote for a moment, because by the time you navigate through all those qualifiers, only to find yourself lost in the fog of the nebulous definition of "Internet of Things"...well, at that point you've forgotten where you were going in the first place.
Will more and more devices start chattering away? Well, sure. Will that affect process? Gee, I hope so. But I'm not sure that's the same as saying that BPM will somehow be inextricably bound with IoT. To the extent that IoT will matter (and there are plenty of hurdles to clear before that can happen), the primary focus is likely to be how to correlate and interpret the data thus collected. Such analysis is not, per se, a BPM discipline. Call it what you will—big data, data science (though I maintain my position that all science is data science)—understanding the data is what is really interesting.
Interesting, yes: but that's not the job of BPM, at least as we understand it today. The job of BPM is to use relevant information to drive the behavior of systems and human actors. IoT, in and of itself, is unlikely to produce such information directly. Rather, the (very cool) engines that sift and filter and sort IoT's unrelenting datastreams will provide the truly actionable information for which BPM thirsts.
building on Ian's assessment:
78% of Gartner predictions are believed to be about the future. The rest is about the physical properties of spherical chicken suspended in void.
45% of Gartner predictions are re-worded from last year's Gartner predictions. The paywall is there just to make it hard to compare them.
Concerning the rapid adoption of IoT-related technology for business processes, let's take a case in point; how about healthcare?
Healthcare deploys lots and increasing amounts of technology per person. But for 10 (or maybe 20) years, the result of increasing automation has been a mixed blessing. Because of the escalating phenomenon of alarm fatigue. How about > 600 alarms per bed per day (per Johns Hopkins study)?!
The problem is that data and devices are cheap. But business analysis is expensive.
So Gartner (Roy Schulte) at least has the first half of the equation right, identifying the drop in cost for instrumentation. And in fairness, Gartner then goes on to say that thru 2018, most process projects will take twice as long as planned. Let's find out more about a possible reason why.
If devices are ever less expensive, and in parallel, data is ever less expensive, what will be the result?
The inexorable result in healthcare has been spraying events and data at front line staff. Front line staff are drowning. And missing alarms. (And there have been multiple documented tragedies where alarm fatigue has been a factor.)
And alarm fatigue is not limited to healthcare, although we can think of healthcare as the canary. The alarm fatigue problem is documented as well in airline cockpits, factory floors and oil exploration, to name a few.
Alarm fatigue is about machine-generated data and events overwhelming human cognition; human functional survival requires massive personal filtering. In such circumstances, instead of the "more, faster, better" decisions promised by an IoT programme, we may end up with pockets of "fewer, worse, slower" decisions.
IoT should be about decisioning; alarm fatigue is about "anti-decisioning".
There are great IoT-oriented business process projects that will succeed. The ones that do are the ones where management stepped up and owned the work of analysis.
I love Ian's comment.
Whether half of business processes will incorporate some element of IoT will depend on how business processes leverage IoT to solve a worthwhile business problem. Or vice versa, how IoT use processes to solve a worthwhile business problem.
Either way, the use of IoT will continue to increase and especially in the case of Industrial IoT, the real ROI will only come if it is effectively integrated to the business and operational processes.
I posted a blog article last week where I asked if Industrial IoT is a solution looking for a problem.
Certainly IoT has a place in the collaboration of information creation and in organisational structures will be incorporated in the business process. As next generation Adaptive software will significantly drop in cost so the IoT connectivity will increase resulting in better outcomes in the end to end process. I see potential in home healthcare.