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With bpmNEXT coming up in two weeks, thought this was would make a good discussion. So what changes do you see in the BPM Market over the next 5 years?

Tuesday, March 17 2015, 09:51 AM
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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, March 17 2015, 10:06 AM - #Permalink
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    Something that was old will once again become new. We will resurrect and re-flog some horse that comes back into vogue because people have short attention spans.

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, March 17 2015, 10:25 AM - #Permalink
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    We see two big things coming in the next years:

    1. General purpose BPMS tools will continue to evolve. Not to build general applications, but to integrate processes into general applications in a really transparent way. There is a lot to improve in this field, and we think it is where big BPM players will go.
    2. Specific BPM tools for certain kind of business, with predefined processes and near zero consulting hours to configure, model, deploy and use. Businesses needs solutions, and not every company wants/can afford a complete BPM solution with associated consulting services, so we think there is space for niche, SaaS, specific processes solutions.

    In sum, we see big players improving their tools to provide a better process integration into general applications, and the emerging of niche processes solutions in SaaS mode.

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, March 17 2015, 11:34 AM - #Permalink
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    I agree with Juan, I think BPMS tools will become more integrated with general applications. That's the part I am most interested in - is how BPM will integrate more with strategy, how analytics will influence operational processes strategically and real time, how partner data will be integrated into processes.

    I am also interested in how we make BPMS easier and simpler for small and mid size companies.

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, March 17 2015, 11:46 AM - #Permalink
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    To be honest; I have no clue and would it make any difference to have a clue?

    But, at least I hope it makes sense for people who are executing (parts of) processes each day, no matter what vendors, analysts or gurus think.

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, March 17 2015, 12:25 PM - #Permalink
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    Five years can be a long time, particularly in a fast changing technology market.

    We will have seen the rise and fall of the smartwatch, end of the desktop, laptop and on-premise computing. Virtual reality will be mainstream and all equipment will be connected into an internet of things, delivering instant data on everything we need, before we realise we need it.

    America will lose its place as the innovator in business methods as new ideas and methodologies emerge from the far east and both Europe and America are sidelined as small low-opportunity, service-driven markets, dwarfed by the maturing, fast growing consumer markets of the east.

    We will see loss of influence by corporations as better communication enables smaller teams to do what once needed a massive organisation. This will lead to the demise of the C-Suite as companies re-organise into small close-knit autonomous teams. We will see the end of BigIT as we know it.

    In five years BPM will be about as relevant as other outdated methodologies like Lean and Six Sigma are today.

    But process will have grown in power and influence. It will be core to the machine learning systems which run all repeatable processes and contribute to the non-repeatable ones with intelligence on demand. Process will no longer be a thing - it will be a given - just part of optimising by the data.

    And it will be optimised by a datascientist, not by a process expert.

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    • Patrick Lujan
      more than a month ago
      Oooh... I'm saving this one forever.

      1. Demise of the desktop and laptop? Never. Why? They're called "programmers."
      2. Demise of on-premise computing? Also never. Why? Security.
      3. Demise of the C-Suite? Still never? Why? Money. Ibid BigIT.
      4. BPM irrelevancy? Nope. Why? Middleware licensing sales.

      I'm good with "we'll see" on all of the above short of the bees dying. Then all bets are off. :D
    • Peter Johnston
      more than a month ago
      In 5,000bc the stone tablet was a major method of communication. Then along came papyrus.

      People still carve things in stone. But it hasn't been at the cutting edge of news for a while.

      Same with the desktop. There will always be a few, just as there are still people who use typewriters.

      But when talking about demise we are talking about markets here - we have to assume a certain size, not way down a dinosaur's long tail. Though there will still be a lot of out of date people on the down slope of the bell curve, surviving because their business is in an industry which is not a true market (like health or finance).

      IT is becoming like electricity - everywhere and connected in a grid. There will be no middleware.
    • Emiel Kelly
      more than a month ago
      Processes are already a given for thousands of years. The only problem is that BPM people made them like something new and special.

      But indeed, the way they are executed and managed may differ from time to time.

      Are you already lynched by the LeanSixSigma police? ;-)
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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, March 17 2015, 12:35 PM - #Permalink
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    BPM market will be boosted by a set of commonly-agreed reference models and architecture.

    An enterprise will be able to assemble its own BPM environment by selecting best-for-fit BPM functional tools.

    Development of process-centric applications will be in several times faster than with traditional methods.

    Each process or cluster of processes will be a mobile app.

    The whole digital enterprise will be naturally considered as a system of processes.

    Process mining and predictive analytics will be used to better understand customer-expectations.

    People will delegate more and more routine activities to artificial agents (traditional computers and intelligent “things”).

    Thanks,
    AS

    • Patrick Lujan
      more than a month ago
      Zachman for BPM, cool.
    • Gary Samuelson
      more than a month ago
      Agent-based systems...
      As BPM is driving activity oriented (process oriented) systems development... it's an inevitable next step.

      Though this isn't saying I'm anywhere near agreeing to artificial intelligence. AI doesn't exist - like a ghost...

      Even quantum computers are now getting the shrug-off. Which, without quantum theory I honestly can't imagine anything near human intelligence evolving from bits of logic running on silicon/metal.
    • John Morris
      more than a month ago
      Good reference to process mining. I believe the technology has huge potential, but uptake is limited by management factors. Process mining puts a lot of pressure on managers to manage, i.e. more than what is usual now. Organizations that master this technology and associated methodologies will gain significant advantage.
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  • Accepted Answer

    Amy Barth
    Amy Barth
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    Tuesday, March 17 2015, 01:00 PM - #Permalink
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    I agree with Juan and Shelley. I really hope that BPM continues to simplify and specialize so that it can deliver on some of its promises. I also agree with the sentiment that we cannot predict what's going to happen in 5 years in the tech world, but five years ago I was working on a project with a BPM product that is still on-going, so I can't see BPM going away. This is especially true in the government sector where they are just beginning to embrace what BPM can do for them.

    References:

    1. http://goo.gl/7pMaiE
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  • Accepted Answer

    Wednesday, March 18 2015, 06:23 AM - #Permalink
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    BPM will be the discipline used to recognise how people actually work as such the important discovery exercise to establish what digital support is required. Digital will be the driving need which has already started. This capability really does need seamless back office support delivering real time data so "integration" with old applications may not deliver effectively. So new capability in build tools is needed where legacy is the slave to the new front end BPM supporting applications.

    To deliver will require a development/build environment that allows direct input from business for rapid custom build and support easy change in their hands. As such coding will largely be removed much as Bill Gates described in 2007; so vendors will need to go back to the drawing board and create such capability.....

    A consequence of such significant move in supporting technology is very large cost reduction and this will make SaaS more of a traditional all lease/buy deal just like any other asset. This recognises good processes are assets and need to be under control of the business owner. It is going to be an interesting 5 years!

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  • Accepted Answer

    Wednesday, March 18 2015, 08:42 AM - #Permalink
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    1. Demand for the classic BPMS will continue but it will remain a niche product.

    2. Growth of pre-built process apps e.g. on-boarding, claims, hr, finance, claims.

    3. Increased absorption of BPM within other business applications e.g. HR, CRM and Customer experience solutions.

    4. Increased use of BPM functionality within IoT solutions. This will remain slow until the necessary partnerships or acquisitions occur between the data analytics vendors, BPM vendors and device manufacturers.

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  • Accepted Answer

    Thursday, March 19 2015, 05:34 AM - #Permalink
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    @Alex Samarin:

    +1, but I don't see a commonly-agreed set of reference models and architecture for BPM anytime in the next 5 years. What will happen is the emergence of a multitude of smarter BPM arhitectures and approaches, but they will not converge into a standard.
     
     
    Predictive analytics only make sense for mass-market businesses. But the big chance of BPM is mid and small enterprises, who are the most likely candidates for the digital enterprise concept, since they don't suffer from the curse of legacy and they adopt faster any advanced technology that helps them survive and thrive.
     
     
    Plus, I don't really believe in the disruptive value of predictive analytics, but I guess I'm well known for that here :-)
     
     
    We still need humans to make sense of the crap humans think, say and do.
    • John Morris
      more than a month ago
      Bogdan, your scepticism about predictive analytics as disruptive is well founded.

      It's very difficult and expensive to do the analysis at all the layers of the cake (actual machine behaviour, sensor characteristics, sensor data stream, multi-sensor data input to machine model, definition of machine states and events, business systems model for things like corrective action, escalations, service ticketing, business case for investing in all this etc. etc.).

      And when you do, you're on a level playing field with everyone else who has grabbed any low-hanging fruit -- not that there isn't a lot of it.

      OK, fair enough. However may I suggest re: "only makes sense for mass-market businesses", that while true, that one can see systems used by an SMB as still an opportunity?

      Because a service provider servicing 100's or even thousands of individual refrigeration or HVAC installations -- each one of which is deployed at SMB -- has a business opportunity to look at retrofitting such installations? For example, refrigeration system failure can be reliably predicted based on current draw: "time for a new motor" . . .

      I don't think you'd disagree with this.

      Obviously BPM has a big role to play here.
    • Dr Alexander Samarin
      more than a month ago
      Thanks Bogdan,

      RE ”commonly-agree set of reference models and architecture” - I think this is only a way of BPM to small and medium enterprises to realise your “big chance” (BTW, we already have multitude of BPM architectures – each BPM vendor brings its own smart one).

      Example – one of my current clients (actually an SME) wants to advance to digital much faster than before, i.e. digital business solutions should be delivered not in 6 months but in 6 weeks and their evolution should be much cheaper, faster and better quality than right now.

      So, the client’s EA group has demonstrated that BPM (as a trio of discipline, tools and practice/architecture) is the best way so far to achieve this goal. Now BPM is one of the pillar of the future Automation and Integration Platform and into each project to deliver a digital business solution we are adding a small “piece” of this platform (current components are BPM-suite, SOA-governance, IAM, ECM, fragments of the to-be-modernised-in-house-ERP, etc.). The EA group guarantees the conceptual integrity of the platform and its components among various projects.

      Although this client is an SME, not many SMEs would follow this way. BUT, the platform fundamentally is the same for many of enterprises because the platform is designed to implement unique business processes from a set of standard components. Imagine that this platform’s interfaces, approaches, architectures are commonly-agreed. Then the risk of BPM implementation will be considerably reduced and delivery of digital business solutions will be improved. Thus is affordable for SMEs.

      An example of such a platform is at http://improving-bpm-systems.blogspot.ch/2014/10/e-government-reference-model-gegf2014.html


      RE “Predictive analytics only make sense for mass-market businesses.” -- Not only. I think (using my experience in the high-energy physics) a combination model + statistics may have a wider usage. BPM can provide such a model.

      Thanks,
      AS
    • Bogdan Nafornita
      more than a month ago
      ok, guys, got your point, my bad - let me clarify the predictive analytics bit - what I meant was "predictive analytics only make sense for large sets of data". I somehow equated this to mass-market which is not correct.

      @John: your example of the current draw is basically an association rule that then ties a measurement to an indicated action. It may be predictive (as it recommends a future course of action) but it is not that analytical.

      @Alex: I agree with your points about the large SME opportunity at hand.
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