In the future, BPM will be reported to be a growing industry, with a BPMS market worth gazillions* of dollars, that will significantly impact enterprise IT departments worldwide. At the same time, spreadsheets and sticky notes will be as popular as ever.
Meanwhile, old-school BPMS licenses will get even more expensive, and simplified worfklow platforms will start to move from the Ridicule phase to Ignore. Things only get much more interesting after that.
To be serious: BPM is daily business, so a better question would be 'what technology/events/political shifts/climate changes' will have the most impact on how organizations execute and manage their processes.
And isn't that just grabbing a list of other predictions for 2016 and score them on some kind of scale from 'no impact' till 'unbelievable big impact'
And that would even be useless for BPM in general. Because every company executes their processes in a certain context.
But didn't it become something like Scenario planning then, like Shell already did in the Middle ages?
But the cool thing about the future is that it's in the future; something that didn't happen yet.
Well... Simple. The first 5 images that popped up as a result (when I Google "Business Process Management") today where pretty conceptual, which is interesting (rather than system landscapes, BPMN diagrams and the like). Now... When I conduct the same search next year, I'm way better able to predict the future for BPM in 2017. :-).
For the upcoming year, I have at least two concrete predictions (or Santa’s wish list if you will) regarding BPM:
The democratization of process mining technologies
There is a growing demand for these technologies, but as of 2015, very few BPMS support it. From what I gathered, there is a general feeling that these tools and techniques are not yet mature enough for the industry.
Hopefully, 2016 will be the year of the transition from academic to industrial solutions for process mining.
More projects involving BPM and the Internet of Things (IoT)
I predict that in 2016 the term BPM will continue to mean "Beats Per Minute" to most of the population at large :-)
Obviously, BPM will die again, as it has every year since 2009, and those of us in the BPM market will continue to do well by our customers and our businesses...
It feels to me like the BPM market is splintering into platform vendors and development tool vendors. Not saying one is better or right vs. the other, just observing the marketing dynamics different vendors are using to go to market, and the strengths that they are attempting to leverage.
BPM will again be the unsung hero driving the effective operations that are required to make companies in the new "digitized world" even possible; quietly behind the scenes. However, brash, pushy CRM will again take all the credit (Customer Success anyone?) through clever rebranding and sheer force of marketing dollars.
BPM is the COO and CRM is the CEO. Guess who craves and gets the limelight....
The foll0wing synergies will start to be implemented:
My predictions are far more humble:
1. business rules will cascade down from hot BPMS feature status to billable BPM consulting work status.
2. real-time process mining will heavily influence information design in operational reports.
3. error- and exception-handling as-a-microservice in low-code BPMS platforms.
At least that's what I would like to achieve...
MyPoV : Thinking loud on the Predictions for BPM 2016:
As I put forward these thoughts on the outlook for “BPM” in 2016 please bear in mind I have been always been ahead of the “game” (an expensive place to be in software) so timing might be a bit out!
BPM’s future must lie with the underlying power of the supporting software to work directly with users to entable quick build and easy change. Yes the “no code” capability must now drive software and must be at “enterprise level”. Just to remind all Bill Gates had that vision in 2008 http://www.infoworld.com/d/developer-world/gates-talks-declarative-modeling-language-effort-386 where he announced plans to build a declarative modelling capability reducing the need to code calling it the “holy grail of development forever”, “the dream the quest…. but would be in a time frame of 5 to 8 years.” So 2008+8 = 2016! Only some 15+ years behind the pioneers!
There is now recognised drive to “digital” and slowly business is beginning to realise it is about business operation not just a fancy web site, UI or IOT. It must deliver real time reports on activity where information is created (human and machines) with full audit trail of who did what when etc. This clearly puts the principles of BPM as a driver. BUT will the tag BPM survive…Hmm…. not sure as rising fast to Enterprise level delivery is a big leap that many vested interests will resist!
Cost of such software will reduce dramatically (50%+) and the investment by customers will effectively be future proof in hands of business professionals…..Not IT! This may the tipping point for old IT as their future must lie with the real technical drivers in hardware and secure delivery. Unfortunately the mess of legacy requires IT support so it is just the start of that journey…..
Effectively this is the start of “commoditisation” of Enterprise software now adopting the “outside – in” approach and supporting recognition the salient process that differentiate any business are assets and need to be “owned” by the business. This combined with the cost reductions will see more traditional asset lease purchase options and make SaaS for this critical software frankly an unwise approach. At last the business customer moves into control …..2016 will be the start of this new and exciting (for some) journey. As for the BPM disciplne let’s ensure it gains that deserved higher profile…..
1) IoT will be integrated with BPM.
2) IoT noise will swamp all existing BPM. Most BPM will fail, and IoT noise will look for staggered integration with BPM.
3) BPM vendors will seek to resurrect the enterprise bus as a new fangled technology to make IoT work seemlessly with their engines.
4) The year will end with client desparation.