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As it's that time of year again, what are your BPM predictions for the year ahead?

Tuesday, December 01 2015, 09:50 AM
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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 09:56 AM - #Permalink
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    Digital-Disruptive-as-a-Service-of-Things.

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 10:07 AM - #Permalink
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    In the future, BPM will be reported to be a growing industry, with a BPMS market worth gazillions* of dollars, that will significantly impact enterprise IT departments worldwide. At the same time, spreadsheets and sticky notes will be as popular as ever.

    Meanwhile, old-school BPMS licenses will get even more expensive, and simplified worfklow platforms will start to move from the Ridicule phase to Ignore. Things only get much more interesting after that.

    * lots

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 10:32 AM - #Permalink
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    To be serious: BPM is daily business, so a better question would be 'what technology/events/political shifts/climate changes' will have the most impact on how organizations execute and manage their processes.

    And isn't that just grabbing a list of other predictions for 2016 and score them on some kind of scale from 'no impact' till 'unbelievable big impact'

    And that would even be useless for BPM in general. Because every company executes their processes in a certain context.

    But didn't it become something like Scenario planning then, like Shell already did in the Middle ages?

    But the cool thing about the future is that it's in the future; something that didn't happen yet. 

    Happy 2016!

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 10:36 AM - #Permalink
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    Well... Simple. The first 5 images that popped up as a result (when I Google "Business Process Management") today where pretty conceptual, which is interesting (rather than system landscapes, BPMN diagrams and the like). Now... When I conduct the same search next year, I'm way better able to predict the future for BPM in 2017. :-).

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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 10:48 AM - #Permalink
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    For the upcoming year, I have at least two concrete predictions (or Santa’s wish list if you will) regarding BPM:

    The democratization of process mining technologies

    There is a growing demand for these technologies, but as of 2015, very few BPMS support it. From what I gathered, there is a general feeling that these tools and techniques are not yet mature enough for the industry.

    Hopefully, 2016 will be the year of the transition from academic to industrial solutions for process mining.

    More projects involving BPM and the Internet of Things (IoT)

    This is already an ongoing trend as I reported earlier (here and here). So, no surprises here, this will continue to gain momentum next year and the years to follow and it will continue to benefit to the BPM industry.
    • John Morris
      more than a month ago
      I second these two predictions. Process mining technology delivers surprisingly business friendly payoffs in surprisingly short time frames. And what better application of process mining and BPM technology than to the incipient chaos of IoT? But no magical thinking please: slow and steady is the mantra.
    • Emiel Kelly
      more than a month ago
      Although I use(d) process mining a lot, indeed it still has an very academic taste. Who cares about the 15 million algorithms underneath it?

      And you're right it's not part of BPMs's very often.

      But as separate tooling you see more and more commercial companies who offer it including services.

      Ok, for today I will not argue that mining shows only symptoms of process performance and that it's locker room talk ;-)
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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 11:59 AM - #Permalink
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    I predict that in 2016 the term BPM will continue to mean "Beats Per Minute" to most of the population at large :-)

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    • John Morris
      more than a month ago
      So true! You have to make a filter . . .
    • Emiel Kelly
      more than a month ago
      And to be honest; it's a meaning I like more than boring processes.
    • Patrick Lujan
      more than a month ago
      Ayuh, @bpmqueen just favorited a Tweet of mine today, then I looked at her, the little faux bimbette.
    • Emiel Kelly
      more than a month ago
      Ah, then I was more lucky : @delilah_fresh and @sophiabumps.
    • Patrick Lujan
      more than a month ago
      I got @sophiabumps too. ;)

      Speaking of, guess who on this forum follows @bpmqueen? ;)
    • Bogdan Nafornita
      more than a month ago
      When I created the Google+ group called BPM, I had to add an explanation to the name, in order to weed away the dance people :-)
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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 12:15 PM - #Permalink
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    7 votes

    Obviously, BPM will die again, as it has every year since 2009, and those of us in the BPM market will continue to do well by our customers and our businesses...

    It feels to me like the BPM market is splintering into platform vendors and development tool vendors. Not saying one is better or right vs. the other, just observing the marketing dynamics different vendors are using to go to market, and the strengths that they are attempting to leverage.

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    • John Reynolds
      more than a month ago
      Perhaps BPM will be a major plot element for the next season of "The Walking Dead"?
    • Anatoly Belaychuk
      more than a month ago
      BPM is like Osiris - dies and resurrects again and again :)
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  • Accepted Answer

    Ian Gotts
    Ian Gotts
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    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 01:44 PM - #Permalink
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    BPM will again be the unsung hero driving the effective operations that are required to make companies in the new "digitized world" even possible; quietly behind the scenes. However, brash, pushy CRM will again take all the credit (Customer Success anyone?) through clever rebranding and sheer force of marketing dollars.

    BPM is the COO and CRM is the CEO. Guess who craves and gets the limelight....

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    • John Morris
      more than a month ago
      Nice comparison between BPM and CRM. And it's frustrating all the scarce technology dollars that go to CRM rather than BPM.

      Regarding CRM software, I use it and I research the field. While the marketing end of CRM software is OK, the sales end of CRM software is mostly very poorly designed. The hype and the market growth is based on fantasy, not reality. The fact that the poor products are so successful is, to my mind, an artefact of CRM market failure.

      There's a big opportunity for disruption in the world of CRM-for-sales-people. And BPM is part of the answer.
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  • Accepted Answer

    Tuesday, December 01 2015, 04:01 PM - #Permalink
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    The foll0wing synergies will start to be implemented:

    • BPM and blockchain
    • BPM and microservices
    • BPM and IoT
    • BPM and digital

    Thanks,
    AS

    • Patrick Lujan
      more than a month ago
      Bullets:
      1. Dunno, not sure
      2. emphasis on "start"
      3. Ibid
      4. in-flight
    • Dr Alexander Samarin
      more than a month ago
      "start" is an operative word because the scale of synergy for "BPM x blockchain x microservices x IoT x digital" is still under considerations.
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  • Accepted Answer

    Wednesday, December 02 2015, 06:15 AM - #Permalink
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    4 votes

    My predictions are far more humble:

    1. business rules will cascade down from hot BPMS feature status to billable BPM consulting work status.

    2. real-time process mining will heavily influence information design in operational reports.

    3. error- and exception-handling as-a-microservice in low-code BPMS platforms.

    At least that's what I would like to achieve...

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  • Accepted Answer

    Wednesday, December 02 2015, 11:43 AM - #Permalink
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    4 votes

    MyPoV : Thinking loud on the Predictions for BPM 2016:

    • MUST HAVE : BETTER BPM - an understanding & setting principles right
      • define, design & develop better processes
    • BPM + Better Customer Experience Strategies and Innovations
    • BPM + Real-Time Analytics
      • been there in 2015 list - but still think it has to be harnessed and leveraged in a better way
    • BPM & DevOps
      • automation, continuous integration, release management and provisioning made easy
    • BPM & IoT
      • better strategies to exploit data and use it for improvising customer experience
    • BPM & APIs / Micro services
      • This will be an exercise not just for new applications but also for existing applications to visualize and identify services and reusable components that can be built leveraging a API / Microservices layer
      • Helpful for existing applications buried under multiple steps of custom codes or parsing logic or data transformation(request/response)
        • This can be offloaded to the API layer - based on eligibility criteria
    • BPM & Digital - BPM ReBorn Digital with Disruptive Technologies & Gadgets/Wearables
      • Digitization of Application enhancing Customer Experience.
      • It can be an amalgamation of all the trends and technologies
    • BPM & Machine Learning
      • Leveraging Robotic Automation Techniques
      • Very much helpful for upcoming and ongoing projects
      • Maintenance of an application with monotonous, manual and redundant steps is always a pain area
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  • Accepted Answer

    Wednesday, December 02 2015, 11:50 AM - #Permalink
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    As I put forward these thoughts on the outlook for “BPM” in 2016 please bear in mind I have been always been ahead of the “game” (an expensive place to be in software) so timing might be a bit out!

    BPM’s future must lie with the underlying power of the supporting software to work directly with users to entable quick build and easy change. Yes the “no code” capability must now drive software and must be at “enterprise level”. Just to remind all Bill Gates had that vision in 2008 http://www.infoworld.com/d/developer-world/gates-talks-declarative-modeling-language-effort-386 where he announced plans to build a declarative modelling capability reducing the need to code calling it the “holy grail of development forever”, “the dream the quest…. but would be in a time frame of 5 to 8 years.” So 2008+8 = 2016! Only some 15+ years behind the pioneers!

    There is now recognised drive to “digital” and slowly business is beginning to realise it is about business operation not just a fancy web site, UI or IOT. It must deliver real time reports on activity where information is created (human and machines) with full audit trail of who did what when etc. This clearly puts the principles of BPM as a driver. BUT will the tag BPM survive…Hmm…. not sure as rising fast to Enterprise level delivery is a big leap that many vested interests will resist!

    Cost of such software will reduce dramatically (50%+) and the investment by customers will effectively be future proof in hands of business professionals…..Not IT! This may the tipping point for old IT as their future must lie with the real technical drivers in hardware and secure delivery. Unfortunately the mess of legacy requires IT support so it is just the start of that journey…..

    Effectively this is the start of “commoditisation” of Enterprise software now adopting the “outside – in” approach and supporting recognition the salient process that differentiate any business are assets and need to be “owned” by the business. This combined with the cost reductions will see more traditional asset lease purchase options and make SaaS for this critical software frankly an unwise approach. At last the business customer moves into control …..2016 will be the start of this new and exciting (for some) journey. As for the BPM disciplne let’s ensure it gains that deserved higher profile…..

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  • Accepted Answer

    KM Mukku
    KM Mukku
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    Thursday, December 03 2015, 07:02 AM - #Permalink
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    1) IoT will be integrated with BPM.

    2) IoT noise will swamp all existing BPM. Most BPM will fail, and IoT noise will look for staggered integration with BPM.

    3) BPM vendors will seek to resurrect the enterprise bus as a new fangled technology to make IoT work seemlessly with their engines.

    4) The year will end with client desparation.

    • John Morris
      more than a month ago
      Interesting take KM. The "noise" factor I think is overlooked and extremely important; I've written this up under the topic of alarm fatigue -- maybe not exactly the same thing, but related.

      And as for ESB -- "the best technology that never quite took off" -- who knows? Insofar as ESB is an expression of Volker Stiehl's vision for simplifying BPM, you are on to something. Would be nice to see demand from the user side though.
    • KM Mukku
      more than a month ago
      Thanks John, will lookup your write-up.

      1) Interestingly though the ESB in some guise or the other is in most BPM engines.
      2) If the ESB is integrated to IoT to act as a delay switch to keep the BPM engine running, then it defeats the purpose of the IoT noise.
      3) What may happen is that ESB will act the primary filter, to remove the bad noise. This of course means you need to integrate a rule engine to decide on the good noise.
      4) Either way 2016 is going to a roller-coaster ride for BPM + IoT.
      5) Of course there is one other possibility, BPM vendors may shy away from integrating IoT to keep being seen as successful BPM vendors rather than failed BPM + IoT vendors!
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