1/ CMMN gets approved by OMG.
2/ Every BPMS vendor and their mothers will claim they comply with CMMN but they forget to integrate it into their BPMS's.
3/ Gartner releases new magic quadrants for visionary technologies in the freshly discovered BPM aliases: Workflow Experience Management, Customer Touchpoint Management, Happiness Management, Business Emotional Intelligence Management and - why not - simply Management.
4/ Apple stock grows by 40% because Apple.
5/ Salesforce breaks even.
6/ my product breaks even (ok, this is just wishful thinking :-) ).
Happy holidays, everyone!
There are several trends which will reach critical mass during 2015.
Data, Internet of Things, Machine Learning and the decline of BigIT.
Data is going mainstream and driving ever more decisions. Rather than argue over which is best, people are learning to create an AB test and use the data to drive the decision. This can be a threat – as buyers know much more about data than they did and are less open to Gurus and magic – or an opportunity, as people begin to understand more about the power of BPM.
Internet of Things
The idea of connected fridges may be a solution without a problem but within industry many more devices are yielding useful data and can also be automatically triggered by process steps. Thus we can now create the fully connected process with people and machines working together, rather than in separate systems.
The feedback loop in most process systems is disrupted. BPM creates a massive amount of useful data, but all it is used for is a few pretty graphs for the C Suite, when it could feed straight back into the process to self-optimise and learn. This creates a dynamic self-learning process which gets better the more you use it.
We are moving from BigIT to connected applications. BPM can remain within the dying BigIT movement or emerge as a cost-effective force for small and mid-size companies. This requires a 10x or even 100x reduction in cost. As an in-the-cloud business app for less than the cost of an employee, BPM can take on a whole new life.
As an industry, BPM stopped being mainstream some time back. It is gently sliding into oblivion, restricted only to large, highly regulated industries such as finance. My prediction for 2015 is that this will continue, with few people waking up to the possibilities and reinvigorating it for the internet era. Sleepwalking to obscurity. Please prove me wrong.
Happy new year everyone.
Customers, customers, customers. BPM has escaped the back office, and is expanding out to the edges of the organization and beyond. Look for mobile, point of sale, and customer service apps all integrated directly with internal applications and data courtesy of rapid workflow app development platforms, also known as "lightweight BPM". Indeed, we will find that even large organizations that have invested (absurdly) heavily in top-down, heavyweight BPM solutions will discover that, at the divisional and departmental levels, lightweight BPM solutions will be impossible to dislodge.
Happy New Year to all. See you in 2015!
1) Processes will become a base for capabilities and value streams (which are just value delivery check-points).
2) Converging of various coordination techniques (flow-charts, goal-driven, rule-base, etc.) in the same product.
3) Benefits of process-centric initiatives will be measured and shared.
4) Enterprise architects will start to understand BPM.
5) Business architects will start to understand BPM.
6) Application architects will start to understand BPM.
7) Everyone (even in this forum ;) will start to understand BPM.
This year, I felt the the market and the challenges accelerating as never before. This was the year that the forces of the perfect storm (cloud, social, mobile, analitics) started to produce effect as the digitilazition of operations continues to grow.
The rythmn of time will accelerate.
For 2015 I see the loom of:
- Establishment BPMS vendors struggle to integrate with advanced analitics, as the product architecture was never built to handle those kind of requirements as we enter in the era of data. Also, will not not be able to build modern applications effectively substituting legacy applications, a key requirement of Oil and Gas, Power and Utilities and Telecom companies. Despite some vendors have long time ago offered out of the box mobile execution capabilities, they lack native UX across multiple mobile platforms. Hence I see a lot of challenges for the establishment.
- Small BPMS vendors will start denting the market share of the establishment, as decision makers realise it does not make sense to invest a huge amount of money in systems that offer only 5% more in features for a premium price.
- It will be possible to start introducing the concept of the real time enterprise, as companies will have the possibility to connect everything. The challenge here is two fold: creating an Information System infrastructure capable to process, store, analyse data (in real time) and a communication network with high speed velocity, anytime anywhere; tacit knowledge difusion will play a key role as this approach is not easy to implement and digest.
- The velocity of transformation. A combination of techonolgy, decentralisation, empowerment and business model innovation. Companies that set them free to innovate will win.
BPM pundits will continue to claim that BPM will save businesses all over the world with absolutely no evidence to support their claims. BPMS will continue to be used as application development systems. BPM methodologists will continue to dwell in their illusion that if you ignore complexity it goes away.. BPM vendors will add all buzzwords ( big data, analytics, machine learning, customer journeys, .. ) to their marketing material. Buyers will continue to fall for the glossies and irrelevant market fragment analysis.
i will continue to be the thorn in their side ...
All the best for 2015!
I'm going to be boring (as usual) and predict more of the same for 2015. Incremental improvement (dare i say process improvement?!) for 2015. BPM continues to make progress. But I'd continue to keep an eye on how BPM might fragment or splinter into more specific offerings (i'd say niche, but the niches may have more value to each of them than the horizontal BPM market has as a whole).
And, in 2015, someone will declare, "BPM is Dead"
Meanwhile, those in the business of BPM will continue to grow, make money, and improve their businesses relative to their peers, as has happened nearly every year since the first time someone declared BPM is Dead...
2015 will see the enterprise software market move to the “BPM” thinking mode (i.e. “outside in”) which will require a rethink on how as this requires inbuilt easy custom build and future change. So I see many early isolated components such as BPEL BPMN (CMMN?) moving in to history as will old workflow as all capabilities are now able to be delivered recognising the effective commoditisation of software. This will supporting people using "declarative" and generic task objects thus removing need to coding. All projects will be driven by business as they are re-educated it is "their business"!
In terms off delivery will all be about domain knowledge to help the customer on this new software journey and so "BPM" supporting applications will be very focused and customised. As such there will be no wasted resource in the software and with a low technology overhead will level the playing field for smaller suppliers. SaaS will be recognised as the method of payment and become a lease just like any other asset with options at end of agreed period including transfer of the supporting software as required by the customer.
So education will be important as the business customers begin to recognise the need to understand what they are actually buying and how it works……. in their language!
Some things will not change as Max has indicated!
A good New Year to you all.