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  1. Peter Schooff
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  3. Tuesday, January 26 2016, 09:50 AM
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As [url="http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3185623"]Gartner predicted[/url], "More than half of major new business processes and systems will incorporate some element of the Internet of Things (IoT) by 2020, according to Gartner, Inc. The impact of the IoT on consumers' lives and corporate business models is rapidly increasing as the cost of 'instrumenting' physical things with sensors and connecting them to other things — devices, systems and people — continues to drop." What do you think?
Patrick Lujan Accepted Answer
Blog Writer

Read the post, pulling out my virtual popcorn and root beer for the imminent Kool-Aid.


Still waiting to see a data scientist do a really good - read in italics as
[i]"actionable"[/i]
- job on the analytics coming off the amount of data that's being pumped out.


75% of projects not going well and the bad guys hacking devices is a given. [shrug]
Comment
Underscore the "actionable" - an IoT project is not useful unless it is driving decisions (either human or autonomous) - but read any IoT hype and see how often the value of decisioning comes up.
  1. John Morris
  2. 10 months ago
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Ranjit Notani Accepted Answer

More than 50% incorporation by 2020 seems unlikely. IoT has a lot of problems that need to be solved before such a widespread deployment. In particular security is a key issue.



On the other hand there is a famous saying in tech.. something to the effect of 'We always overestimate what will happen in 5 years and underestimate what will happen in 10'. So, if the question was rephrased to 2026, I would say 'yeah, maybe'.



Also it depends on how expansive a definition one takes of IoT. If we consider Smart Phones as a 'thing', then by some estimates we are already there.
References
  1. https://tmail21.com/lean-bpm-manifesto/
Founder and CEO, TMail21
Co-founder and CTO, One Network Enterprises
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Considering that we are at the beginning of the industry 4.0 revolution then I would “predict” that there will be more and more business processes with full happy path executed by “Things” – some kind of software-defined industry or manufacturing (BPM is a key for it, of course).


Those “Things” must be clear enough to “understand” a desired business process and “execute it” together as a group of specialized “workers”. A human being will be needed to supervise them in difficult situations.


Not sure that Gartner took those processes in their calculations.


Thanks,


AS
Comment
Happy paths are hard to find. Exceptions rule. Life is messy. Tacit lurks.
  1. John Morris
  2. 10 months ago
I would say "programmable agents" - grab a BPM-program from a trusted source, check its integrity in blockchain, download necessary instructions, identify all "co-workers", execute the BPM-program, and write the audit-trail to blockchain again.
  1. Dr Alexander Samarin
  2. 10 months ago
Sounds like the "intelligent agents"" talk of Brother Sinur c.2013. I'm still hanging out and watching, waiting. "We'll see."
  1. Patrick Lujan
  2. 10 months ago
Yes, a definition of "happy path" may be either "happy-path-for-service-provider" or "happy-path-for-service-consumer". I think, the target is the latter not the former. It is again about a change from provider-centric market to consumer-centric market.
  1. Dr Alexander Samarin
  2. 10 months ago
To your point Alexander we could add the math behind process mining, which produces amazing results from behaviour-capturing logs.

Yet despite being an enthusiast for the future, I am sceptical concerning the ease with which machines can discover happy paths. The technology is difficult. And the necessary human input, per the experience in the 80's and 90's finding the "expertise" required to build "expert systems", is difficult to find and execute.

Lastly there's a challenge around the economics of happy path. We can take an example in credit scoring. Credit scoring works for large volume credit rating situations, and is therefore by definition a commodity.

Happy paths are I think mostly associated with commodity processes. Which is not a bad thing! But any business person who wants margins must by definition "take the road less travelled", i.e. the road defined by exceptions.
  1. John Morris
  2. 10 months ago
RE “Happy paths are hard to find. ” Sure if you think in today’s practices. Certainly, Community of Things will employ Natural Language Processing, Machine Learning, Pattern Recognition, etc. to perfect template processes which are optimise for a particular customer.
  1. Dr Alexander Samarin
  2. 10 months ago
Hmmm, the distinction for happy-path-for-service-consumer and service-consumer-centric processes deserves attention. The actor/POV question. This could be a whole BPM.com topic?
  1. John Morris
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Ian Gotts Accepted Answer

29% of Gartner predictions are unlikely to be true by 2020.
Comment
#BitingHand
  1. Patrick Lujan
  2. 10 months ago
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E Scott Menter Accepted Answer
Blog Writer

First, +1 to [url="http://bpm.com/bpm-today/in-the-forum/will-more-than-half-of-new-major-business-processes-incorporate-some-element-of-the-internet-of-things-by-2020#reply-3324"]Ian [/url]for brevity, wit, and marksmanship.


Let's set aside the exact quote for a moment, because by the time you navigate through all those qualifiers, only to find yourself lost in the fog of the nebulous definition of "Internet of Things"...well, at that point you've forgotten where you were going in the first place.


Will more and more devices start chattering away? Well, sure. Will that affect process? Gee, I hope so. But I'm not sure that's the same as saying that BPM will somehow be inextricably bound with IoT. To the extent that IoT will matter (and there are plenty of hurdles to clear before that can happen), the primary focus is likely to be how to correlate and interpret the data thus collected. Such analysis is not, per se, a BPM discipline. Call it what you will—big data, data science (though I maintain my position that
[b]all[/b]
science is data science)—
[b]understanding[/b]
the data is what is really interesting.


Interesting, yes: but that's not the job of BPM, at least as we understand it today. The job of BPM is to use relevant information to drive the behavior of systems and human actors. IoT, in and of itself, is unlikely to produce such information directly. Rather, the (very cool) engines that sift and filter and sort IoT's unrelenting datastreams will provide the truly actionable information for which BPM thirsts.





.



http://www.bplogix.com/images/icon-x-medium.png Scott
Comment
There's the word "actionable" again! Outstanding!
  1. John Morris
  2. 10 months ago
This, boys and boys, is called "process maturity."
  1. Patrick Lujan
  2. 10 months ago
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Bogdan Nafornita Accepted Answer

building on Ian's assessment:


78% of Gartner predictions are believed to be about the future. The rest is about the physical properties of spherical chicken suspended in void.


45% of Gartner predictions are re-worded from last year's Gartner predictions. The paywall is there just to make it hard to compare them.



Managing Founder, profluo.com
Comment
Well, Pete was kind'a asking for it when he brought it up. ;)
  1. Patrick Lujan
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John Morris Accepted Answer

Concerning the rapid adoption of IoT-related technology for business processes, let's take a case in point; how about
[b]healthcare[/b]
?


Healthcare deploys lots and increasing amounts of technology per person. But for 10 (or maybe 20) years, the result of increasing automation has been a mixed blessing. Because of the escalating phenomenon of alarm fatigue. How about > 600 alarms per bed per day (per Johns Hopkins study)?!


The problem is that
[b]data and devices are cheap. But business analysis is expensive[/b]
.


So Gartner (Roy Schulte) at least has the first half of the equation right, identifying the drop in cost for instrumentation. And in fairness, Gartner then goes on to say that thru 2018, most process projects will take twice as long as planned. Let's find out more about a possible reason why.


If devices are ever less expensive, and in parallel, data is ever less expensive, what will be the result?


The inexorable result in healthcare has been 
[b]spraying events and data at front line staff[/b]
. Front line staff are drowning. And missing alarms. (And there have been multiple documented tragedies where alarm fatigue has been a factor.)


And alarm fatigue is not limited to healthcare, although we can think of healthcare as the canary. The alarm fatigue problem is documented as well in
[b]airline cockpits, factory floors and oil exploration[/b]
, to name a few.


Alarm fatigue is about machine-generated data and events overwhelming human cognition; human functional survival requires massive personal filtering. In such circumstances, instead of the "
[u]more, faster, better" decisions[/u]
promised by an IoT programme, we may end up with pockets of 
[u]"fewer, worse, slower" decisions[/u]
.


[b]IoT should be about decisioning; alarm fatigue is about "anti-decisioning"[/b]
.


It's actually quite challenging to manage alarms - you need deep domain knowledge and strong logic, process and stats skills. Who has time? Or is willing to pony up with the budget (which has already been allocated to devices and a NoSQL datastore)?

 

My prediction is that IoT adoption for business processes will be slower than anticipated because reality is rich, modeling reality is hard, and the temptation to drown your staff is too great to forgo.

 

Gartner says "twice as long as planned". I think that's optimistic.

There are great IoT-oriented business process projects that will succeed. The ones that do are the ones where management stepped up and owned the work of analysis.
Comment
These are great points, consistent with what I said above (which has NO RELATION WHATSOEVER to my thinking highly of them :). Anybody who has sat at a hospital bedside or eaten in a fast food restaurant knows what alarm fatigue feels like. BPM is happy to jump every time a device anywhere reports that "Everything is still OK", but that doesn't seem that useful. Knowing how to push the button matters, but knowing WHEN to push it probably matters even more.
  1. E Scott Menter
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Pieter van Schalkwyk Accepted Answer
Blog Writer

I love Ian's comment.


Whether half of business processes will incorporate some element of IoT will depend on how business processes leverage IoT to solve a worthwhile business problem. Or vice versa, how IoT use processes to solve a worthwhile business problem.


Either way, the use of IoT will continue to increase and especially in the case of Industrial IoT, the real ROI will only come if it is effectively integrated to the business and operational processes.


I posted a [url="http://xmpro.com/how-to-get-started-with-industrial-iot/"]blog article last week [/url]where I asked if Industrial IoT is a solution looking for a problem.



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David Chassels Accepted Answer

Certainly IoT has a place in the collaboration of information creation and in organisational structures will be incorporated in the business process. As next generation Adaptive software will significantly drop in cost so the IoT connectivity will increase resulting in better outcomes in the end to end process. I see potential in home healthcare.
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